Twenty-two reasons to be optimistic about the Maple Leafs in 2022 (2024)

The last year was not great for anyone (except Jeff Bezos, I guess).

Of course, 2021 was also a tricky one for the Toronto Maple Leafs. We don’t need to run through all the turbulence here. We’re all about optimism in this particular space: reasons — 22 of them — to be optimistic about the Leafs in 2022.

Let’s get to it.

1. DK on the PK

A less-heralded part of David Kampf’s strong first season (so far) as a Leaf: his penalty killing.

Simply put, he’s emerged as one of the most effective penalty killers in the league. Kampf has logged more shorthanded ice time than all but five forwards in the NHL. His team has been scored on just three times in that stretch — the fourth-best rate league-wide among forwards with at least 40 minutes of action.

That’s not just Jack Campbell-related voodoo, either.

Kampf is up there among the league leaders in just about every shorthanded underlying metric — shots against, scoring chances against, expected goals against, etc. He’s doing it facing No. 1 power plays, too.

Good results on the PK is about a lot of things, obviously. Having Mitch Marner at his side undoubtedly helps. So does Campbell in the crease. So does Kampf winning almost half of his shorthanded draws, leading to quick clears and little time spent in-zone.

2. John Tavares shooting — and scoring — around the net

The Leafs captain is at his best when he’s punching in loose change around the blue paint.

This season, he’s done it, arguably, better than ever before.

Tavares ranks among the league leaders in both goals (13) and expected goals (13). It all bodes well for the postseason.

3. The re-emergence of a threatening power play

There was maybe no bigger team-wide subplot heading into the season than the power play. It’s hard to overstate just how hurtful the special teams unit was to the Leafs falling apart against Montreal in last year’s playoffs.

The positive news for the Leafs so far this season is that the power play looks legitimately scary — but in a good way.

Hogging most of the action, PP1 has bubbled and brewed when it’s been out there and has been chaotic in a way that it wasn’t for two-thirds of last season, and two-thirds of the one before that.

The Leafs have already scored 26 power-play goals in 30 games, just five off last season’s total in 56 games.

Unlike last year, the best-in-the-league (or close) underlying numbers actually match up with reality.

This is no longer just an Auston Matthews-or-bust group either, though he is on his way to a new career high. Even PP2, led by Jason Spezza, has looked dangerous.

4. Auston Matthews has never been better

I could go in a lot of different directions here, including the power play. But consider this:

The Leafs generate 3.5 expected five-on-five goals per 60 minutes when Matthews is on the ice, a monstrous figure that’s by far the best in the 24-year-old’s career. It’s also basically the same mark as Connor McDavid this season.

The big difference? Edmonton surrenders 2.7 expected goals against per 60 with McDavid out there. The Leafs, on the other hand, give up a scant 2.0 with Matthews on the ice.

In short, the Leafs are absolutely pummeling teams when their best player is out there in a way that exceeds even McDavid — generating all kinds of offence without giving much, if anything, back.

Even after a slow start, Matthews is on pace to put up 59 goals and 97 points. His five-on-five productivity is still catching up to what it should be.

(Side point for optimism: Marner still has another level or two to get to this year.)

5. Rasmus Sandin and Timothy Liljegren look like legit NHLers

Zach Bogosian deciding to return to Tampa in the offseason opened up a hole — on the right side of the third pair — that might not have been there otherwise. It was slated to belong to Travis Dermott. Instead, a time share has unexpectedly opened up between Dermott and Timothy Liljegren.

Liljegren might be the biggest surprise of the Leafs season.

His processing speed looks to have caught up to the best league in the world. He looks more sure of himself defending and handling the puck under pressure. His ceiling is still a question mark. He’s looked less at home playing alongside Jake Muzzin in harder minutes this season. That said, he’s 22 and a rookie in the NHL. It’s clear the Leafs have something in their 2017 first-round pick — another reminder (for me, anyhow) of the extra patience defencemen require.

Sandin’s strong start is far less surprising. But after hiccups in his first NHL playoffs, he wasn’t a sure thing to look so at ease in a third-pairing role this season.

Liljegren and Sandin are bit players at the moment. They represent the longer-term future of the Toronto blue line.

6. T.J. Brodie and Morgan Rielly look like one of the top pairs in the NHL

This is precisely what GM Kyle Dubas had in mind when he signed Brodie to a four-year, $20 million deal two summers ago. The Leafs have hammered teams when Brodie and Rielly are out there together — 20-10 on the scoreboard, with an expected goals mark that ranks among the NHL’s best.

7. Alex Kerfoot has finally come into his own

For two seasons, the Leafs wedged Kerfoot into a role — centering the third line — that he always felt just a little out of place in. This season, with the exception of three early Matthews-less games, Kerfoot has played exclusively on the wing and almost exclusively with Tavares.

The result: His finest season in the NHL to date.

Kerfoot is on pace to outdo the career-high 43 points he delivered for Colorado as a rookie. The big difference between that season and this one is that all but two of his 16 points have come five-on-five. He’s not cashing goodies in on the man advantage any longer. In fact, Kerfoot doesn’t have a single power-play point this year as he no longer plays any role there. (During that rookie year with the Avs, Kerfoot totaled 17 power-play points.)

Kerfoot actually ranks just outside the top 50 NHL forwards with his five-on-five production rate, thanks to his fit with Tavares and Nylander.

He’s become reliable enough in his own zone to move down a rung in the lineup ladder and play wing on a defence-heavy third line with Kampf. He’s also third in the pecking order up front when it comes to penalty killing.

He’s averaging a career-high 15.5 minutes this season.

One of the Leafs’ best playoff performers last year, Kerfoot has kept on climbing.

8. Leads locked down

Late-lead protection hasn’t always been a strong suit of the Leafs, and has been most damaging of all in the playoffs.

This season, pre-playoffs anyway, is a different story.

The Leafs are 16-0-0 when leading after two periods — one of eight unbeaten teams.

9. Ondrej Kase has become the versatile forward piece the Leafs wanted last season

The Leafs paid a hefty price to acquire Nick Foligno at last year’s trade deadline.

In the summer, they reeled in Ondrej Kase for almost nothing — $1.25 million on the cap for one season (after reportedly trying to bring back Foligno for much more). Kase has basically been what the Leafs hoped to have gotten in Foligno — a hardworking, jack-of-all-trades who could move up and down the lineup.

Foligno has scored zero goals and mustered only four assists in 18 games for the Bruins (who signed him to a two-year contract with a $3.8 million cap hit) this year. In 27 games for the Leafs, Kase has buried eight goals and 15 points, including 13 points in the last 14 games while spending some time on the top line.

The 26-year-old has also become a ferocious penalty killer and thrived when given a recent opportunity on the power play.

Kase could be the playoff piece the Leafs wanted in Foligno, but never ultimately got.

10. (Not so) grumpy old men

The Leafs are getting plenty out of 38-year-old Spezza and 33-year-old Wayne Simmonds in very specific, aka limited, roles.

Spezza is on pace for 21 goals, playing 12 minutes a game on the fourth line and second power-play unit.

That’s pretty much par for the course for Spezza in Toronto, a folk hero in these parts now after a decade-plus as a villain.

Simmonds is a different story.

He looked to be running out of gas last season, his first at home in Toronto. The Leafs gave him a two-year deal in the offseason and then curtailed his role immediately. The team chopped two minutes a night off his plate, limiting him, for the most part, to the fourth line.

They all but erased him from the power play.

Simmonds has logged under 10 minutes more times than not.

After admittedly needing some time to adjust to the fewest minutes of his career, Simmonds has responded with a more spry, feisty and productive performance. He’s already collected more points (10) in 29 games this season than he did over 38 games last season (nine).

11. Kampf could be the Leafs’ own Samuel Pahlsson

Maybe there’s a more recent example that I’m not thinking of. (Yanni Gourde with less offence?) Let’s stick with Pahlsson, who helped the Anaheim Ducks to a Stanley Cup in 2007 by doing the dirty work. That freed stars like Ryan Getzlaf and Teemu Selanne to hunt for offence as often as possible.

Kampf is showing he can play the same sort of part for the Leafs — to the extreme. His offensive zone percentage is currently 17.5 percent, by far the lowest figure in the league among forwards with at least 300 five-on-five minutes.

Keefe wouldn’t be burying Kampf if he wasn’t proving he could handle it. The Leafs have outscored teams, somehow, with Kampf on the ice, with very positive underlying defensive metrics.

All this bodes well for the playoffs. With Kampf around to dust and sweep up floors in the defensive zone, Keefe can get Matthews and Tavares into the offensive zone more often, where they can dance the night away.

12. The Leafs survived without Petr Mrazek

That Mrazek, the Leafs’ biggest offseason signing (three years, $3.8 million cap hit), has logged 160 minutes of action and the team has been just fine — better than fine even — bodes well for 2022.

Of course, 98 percent or so of that fineness(?) comes down to Campbell, who’s sizzled in just about every one of his 22 starts. The Leafs winning three of four games with 23-year-old Joseph Woll, still trying to establish himself in the AHL, is the other small part of the story.

Though he’s still a HUGE question mark in terms of health and performance, Mrazek offers at least the promise of stability and support alongside Campbell in the second half, and beyond.

13. William Nylander is playing a huge role on the power play

I was among those who felt like Nylander was being underutilized on the power play.

He’s arguably got the best pass-shoot combo threat on the team. (His shot is second to Matthews, his passing second to Marner.)

So, it’s been refreshing to see him more featured and involved in the action on PP1 this season, whether it’s in the bumper role or on one of the flanks. Nylander is right there amongst the NHL’s top-10 in power-play points (14). He’s lingering among the leaders in shots (26), goals (five) and assists (nine), doing a little bit of everything for the Leafs with the man advantage.

14. Faceoff aces

Faceoffs may not matter as much in the big picture as we used to think. But, any team would still rather have more aces than not, especially for a big spot in a playoff game.

The Leafs have three of them.

Tavares has quietly won 60 percent of his draws this season, the fifth-best mark in the league and a career high. Matthews isn’t far behind at 56 percent, also a career high. Kampf ranks just inside the top-30 (min. 150 draws) at 55 percent — also, yes, a career high.

Spezza, the lone right-shooting option, has fallen off this year, to a still-respectable 52 percent.

15. Jack Campbell looks like the real deal

He still has to prove himself in a playoff series — outduel his opponent, that is — but there’s not much more a goalie can do in a calendar year of regular-season action.

For Campbell in 2021, that’s a 32-8-4 record, with five shutouts and a .930 save percentage.

Pretty, pretty, pretty good.

16. Sheldon Keefe continues to grow as an NHL head coach

We probably don’t spend as much time talking about Keefe’s growth as a young NHL coach as we should, his two (at times questionable) playoff performances notwithstanding.

His regular-season results have been superb. Keefe, in fact, has the top points percentage (.669) of any active coach.

While he’ll still be judged, like everyone else in the organization, on what goes down in the playoffs, we can say he’s done a good job to this point of the season. He managed to guide his team past the potentially team-splitting events of last spring, for one thing. He’s also pushed the right buttons at the right times, including very early on when the team looked like it was on the verge of spiraling.

Among the moves:

• Splitting up Matthews and Marner relatively early when that partnership looked unusually off
• Splitting Jake Muzzin and Justin Holl when that partnership was also askew
• Seeing something in Kase that led him to believe he could kill penalties
• Putting Kampf to work in unmatched defensive duty
• Dropping Nick Ritchie in the lineup when that wasn’t working
• Reinstalling Rielly on the No. 1 power-play unit

Keefe also made the unorthodox (and potentially awkward) move of handing control of the power play to Spencer Carbery, a first-year assistant in the NHL, from incumbent Manny Malhotra.

The Leafs remain one of the league’s top five-on-five teams. Keefe should be in the running for the Jack Adams Award as the league’s top coach.

17. The Michael Bunting experience has taken off

After some early-season adjustment, Bunting has found a snug fit next to Matthews on the No. 1 line.

He’s produced more five-on-five points this season (16) than Zach Hyman in Edmonton (11), the guy he ultimately replaced at LW1.

I tend to think Bunting’s star will shine brighter in the playoffs. His scrappy, hardworking Scarborough-bred approach should win a lot (more) fans. Think Darcy Tucker (lite) 2.0.

18. The Leafs have lightened Matthews’ and Marner’s load

Not only are the Leafs relying less on Matthews and Marner in their own zone (see Kampf above). They’ve also simply cut back on how much the two stars are playing, period, which should, in theory anyway, lead to fresher legs come playoff time.

Marner is playing almost two minutes fewer per game this season, down from 22.5 a night, the top mark of any forward in the league, to just under 21 on average. Matthews is down about a minute per night — to about 20.5 minutes a game.

We’ll see if it pays off down the line.

19. Topi Niemela has emerged as a top prospect

It wasn’t a happy finish to 2021 for Nick Robertson (injured) and Rodion Amirov (not playing much in the KHL).

For Topi Niemela though, it’s been a party.

Our resident Leafs prospect guru, Josh Kloke, explains:

No Leafs prospect had a more meteoric rise in 2021 than Niemela. He proved he could dominate in a men’s league as a teenager, something no other Leafs prospect did, or has done since Sandin’s 2019-20 season with the Marlies. Niemela’s historic offensive production rightly gets the headlines, but also he’s learned to use his smarts to defend more effectively against the rush. That should help him eventually become an NHL player.

20. Speaking of which, the Leafs have a first-round pick (for now) in the 2022 draft

First-rounders were sent elsewhere in 2019 and 2021. For now, at least, the Leafs have a first-round pick in the 2022 draft.

Not much else though. Picks in the third, fourth, fifth and sixth round are all gone. It looks like a sure thing that the team will keep their pick in the seventh, though. That could have gone to Minnesota if Brennan Menell had played in 30 games, which doesn’t appear to be happening. (He hasn’t suited up in even one.)

Might that first-rounder get moved ahead of the deadline? It sure is possible. The Leafs are in win-now mode. Nothing should be off the table.

21. Pierre Engvall has established himself as a viable depth forward

It feels like ages ago that Engvall’s roster spot felt like it could be in jeopardy, with threats from Adam Brooks and Michael Amadio at camp.

Engvall shoved both those dudes aside and has put together a solid season. The fourth line has been at its best when he’s played alongside Simmonds and Spezza. He’s also fit in well when Keefe has asked him to move onto Kampf’s left side. (He’s slated to centre the unit in Kampf’s potential absence). Engvall has slid into PK duties on occasion and chipped in four goals and 10 points, some of which came as a first-time power-play option in the NHL.

His heavy shot has been a threat there.

Engvall will be a restricted free agent at season’s end — a valuable 25-year-old depth utility piece for the Leafs.

22. The Atlantic Division crown is there for the taking

OK, so Tampa has been stomping teams even without Nikita Kucherov and Brayden Point for most of the season.

Still, the Leafs are only four points back (46-42), with a game in hand. Florida, meanwhile, has cooled off after a hot start.

The division, which feels slightly weaker to me, is there to be had. Win the Atlantic crown and that all-or-nothing first-round series gets a teensy bit less daunting.

The Leafs haven’t been close at all in recent Atlantic races. They finished 19 points behind Boston during the truncated 2019-20 season, 28 points back of Tampa a year before that and eight points back of the Bolts again the year before that.

The Leafs have won one and lost one against the Lightning this season. Two more crucial matchups will follow — both in April, both in Tampa.

An opportunity is there to slay the giant — in the regular season anyway.

Bonus: Phil Kessel’s contract comes off the books

Somewhere this summer, Brandon Pridham will be celebrating. This will be the seventh(!) and final season that Kessel’s $1.2 million cap hit sits on the books. Time to spend that cheddar!

Stats and research courtesy of Natural Stat Trick, Evolving Hockey, Hockey Reference, and Cap Friendly

(Top photo: Kevin Sousa / NHLI via Getty Images)