Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Denver Nuggets Game 6 Odds and Predictions (2024)

The 2023-24 NBA playoff second-round action continues this week as we move to the later stages of every series. The only game scheduled for tonight features the Minnesota Timberwolves hosting the Denver Nuggets in Game 6 of the Western Conference semifinals.

Here is a look at which squad has the edge heading into this matchup and why.

Timberwolves vs. Nuggets – How We Got Here & Betting Trends

Minnesota is the slight favorite heading into Game 6

The Timberwolves thoroughly outplayed the Nuggets on their home floor and jumped out to a 2-0 lead. But since then, Minnesota has dropped three straight and found themselves on the brink of elimination -- something that many did not think was possible a little over a week ago. In their Game 5 loss, Karl-Anthony Towns scored a team-high 23 points and grabbed six rebounds. Rudy Gobert added 18 points and 11 rebounds.

However, Anthony Edwards -- who was averaging 33.3 points per contest in Games 1-4 -- was held below 20 points for the second time in his last three outings. He finished with 18 points, nine assists, and four rebounds but shot just 5-for-15 from the field and 1-for-5 from distance. Minnesota held Denver's offense in check in the first two contests, giving up just 89.5 points per contest. But in the last three games, the defending champions are averaging 114.7 points per contest with an average margin of victory of 13.3 points per game.

When the playoffs began, the Timberwolves were dominant, posting wins in each of their first six playoff contests. But the waters are a bit murky after dropping three straight for the first time this season. If Minnesota can rediscover its defensive form, they should have a great chance at forcing a Game 7. If not, they will be forced to think about what might have been.

Meanwhile, the Nuggets have a new lease on life, as the saying goes. The champs looked like chumps early on but have since found their swagger after taking three straight over the Timberwolves. In the team's recent victory, three-time MVP Nikola Jokić led the way with a game-high 40 points, connecting on 15 of his 22 shot attempts. He also had 13 assists and seven rebounds.

Jokic scored 19 points in the first half and 16 points in the game-changing third quarter. He was such a matchup nightmare that even the opposition had to take a moment to offer praise for his performance.

To echo Edwards' point, Jokic has averaged 33 points per game in the last three games. If the Timberwolves cannot find a way to limit his effectiveness, the defending champions will be moving on to the conference finals for the second straight season.

Now that we have set the stage for this Game 6 showdown, let’s examine the betting trends for both sides.

Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Picks

GIVEMESPORT presents our picks with analysis

The Spread

Despite losing three straight, the Timberwolves are a 2.5-point favorite coming into this matchup (per OddShark). Here is a look at how both ball clubs have fared against the spread this season.

• The Nuggets are 4-2 ATS in their last six games.
• In its last seven May games, Denver is 5-2 against the spread.
• The Timberwolves are 6-3 ATS in their last nine outings.
• Minnesota is 13-7 ATS in its last 20 matchups against Western Conference opponents.
• In their last six contests against Northwest Division teams, the Timberwolves are 2-4 against the spread.
• Prediction: Denver Nuggets (+2.5)

Over/Under

The projected over/under total for this matchup opened at 206 points, but the line has recently moved to 203 points (per Pre-Game.com). Here is why going with “OVER” is the smart choice.

• The total has gone OVER five times in the Nuggets' last six road contests.
• The OVER total has prevailed seven times in Denver's last nine games against Western Conference teams.
• The total has gone OVER 10 times in the Timberwolves' last 14 outings.
• In Minnesota's last six matchups against Denver, the OVER total is 4-2.
• The OVER total prevailed seven times in the Timberwolves' last nine home games against Denver.
• Prediction: OVER 203 points

Player Prop Bets

Following his third consecutive 30-plus points outing, Jokic is the key player to watch for the road team. He currently has -105 odds of scoring more than 29.5 points and -115 odds of finishing with less than 29.5 points.

Here is a look at how his numbers stack up against the projected points total for this matchup.

• During the regular season and playoffs, he is averaging 26.7 points per game in 89 appearances.
• Jokic has averaged 31.1 points per contest in nine games against the Timberwolves this season (including the playoffs).
• During the postseason, he is averaging 28.8 points per outing.
• Jokic has played against Western Conference teams 59 times this season. In those contests, he is averaging 27.9 points per outing.
• In 19 matchups against Northwest Division opponents, Denver's big man averages 28.6 points per game.
• Over his last 10 outings, Jokic has averaged 28.8 points and 13.8 rebounds per contest, exceeding the points total for this matchup four times during that stretch.
• Prediction: Nikola Jokić OVER 29.5 points

On the other side of this matchup, Edwards continues to be the key player to watch for the home team. He currently has +100 odds of scoring more than 29.5 points and -120 odds of finishing with less than 29.5 points.

Do his numbers favorably compare to the estimated points total for this matchup? Let’s look at the tale of the tape to find out.

• Edwards is averaging 26.4 points per contest during the regular season and playoffs.
• In nine games against the Nuggets this season, Edwards has averaged 28.3 points per contest.
• During the postseason, he is averaging 30.6 points per outing.
• Edwards has played against Western Conference teams 59 times this season (including the playoffs). In those contests, he is averaging 26.2 points per outing.
• In 20 matchups against Northwest Division opponents, Minnesota’s shooting guard averages 26.9 points per game.
• Over his last 10 outings, Edwards has averaged 28.8 points and 6.2 rebounds per contest, exceeding the points total for this matchup five times during that stretch.
• Prediction: Anthony Edwards OVER 29.5 points

Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Denver Nuggets Final Picks

• The Spread: Denver Nuggets (+2.5) OddShark
• Over/Under: OVER 203 points (Pre-Game.com)
• Player Prop Bet #1: Nikola Jokić OVER 29.5 points
• Player Prop Bet #2: Anthony Edwards OVER 28.5 points